A Tropical Low, which is currently well to our South but closer than yesterday is slowly pinwheeling toward the Mid-South.  This has initiated a few showers and thundershowers but for the most part it’s been a dry afternoon for many.  If it is not raining where you are right now, there is still a possibility before the evening is over.  In fact, there is one band right now that is about to move into part of Shelby county and while it does have a flash or two of lightning it’s signature is rather benign at this moment.

I posted a link below to the National Hurricane Center’s web site which shows a new feature developing in the Caribbean Sea.  You may want to bookmark their site as Hurricane Season 2010 rolls along.  Have a great evening and thank you for reading our blog.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

A Tropical Depression is spinning in the Northern Gulf of Mexico right now.  This feature could play a part in our forecast this week.  Many forecasters are still wondering exactly what will transpire and to be honest with you, the precise location and strength will only be known in a couple of days.  In any event, it will keep conditions from becoming oppressive again with respect to the heat.  It may bring thundershowers to the region by “Hump Day.”

Click on the link below for the very latest from the National Hurricane Center.  It is rather interesting.

http://apnews.myway.com/article/20100816/D9HKI1E00.html

NOAA: Second Warmest July and Warmest Year-to-Date Global Temperature on Record

 The combined global land and ocean surface temperature made this July the second warmest on record, behind 1998, and the warmest averaged January–July on record. The global average land surface temperature for July and January–July was warmest on record. The global ocean surface temperature for July was the fifth warmest, and for January–July 2010 was the second warmest on record, behind 1998.

The monthly analysis from NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center, which is based on records going back to 1880, is part of the suite of climate services NOAA provides government, business and community leaders so they can make informed decisions.

Global Temperature Highlights

• The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for July 2010 was the second warmest on record at 61.6°F (16.5°C), which is 1.19°F (0.66°C) above the 20^th century average of 60.4°F (15.8°C). The averaged temperature for July 1998 was 61.7°F (16.5°C).

• The July worldwide land surface temperature was 1.85°F (1.03°C) above the 20^th century average of 57.8°F (14.3°C) — the warmest July on record. Warmer-than-average conditions dominated land areas of the globe. The most prominent warmth was in Europe, western Russia and eastern Asia. Cooler-than-average regions included central Russia, Alaska and southern South America.
  • According to the Finnish Meteorological Institute, Finland set a new all-time maximum temperature on July 29 when temperatures soared to 99.0°F (37.2°C), surpassing  the previous record set in July 1914 by 2.3°F (1.3°C).
  • Western Russia was engulfed by a severe heat wave during much of July. On July 30, Moscow set a new all-time temperature record when temperatures reached 102°F (39°C), exceeding the previous record of 99.0°F (37.2°C) set four days earlier. Before 2010, the highest maximum temperature recorded in Moscow was 98.2°F (38.8°C), set nine decades ago.
  • According to the Beijing Climate Center, the July 2010 average temperature across China was 73.0°F (22.8°C), which is 2.5°F (1.4°C) above the 1971-2000 average and the warmest July since 1961.
• The worldwide ocean surface temperature was 0.97°F (0.54°C) above the 20^th century average of 61.5°F (16.4°C) and the fifth warmest July on record. The warmth was most pronounced in the Atlantic Ocean.
• La Niña conditions developed during July 2010, as sea surface temperatures (SST) continued to drop across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. According to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, La Niña is expected to strengthen and last through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2010-2011.
• For the year-to-date, the global combined land and ocean surface temperature of 58.1°F (14.5°C) was the warmest January-July period on record. This value is 1.22°F (0.68°C) above the 20^th century average.

 Polar Sea Ice and Precipitation Highlights

• Arctic sea ice covered an average of 3.2 million square miles (8.4 million square kilometers) during July. This is 16.9 percent below the 1979-2000 average extent and the second lowest July extent since records began in 1979. The record low July was set in 2007. This was the 14^th consecutive July with below-average Arctic sea ice extent. July 1996 was the last year that had above-average sea ice extent.
• Antarctic sea ice extent in July was above average, 4.8 percent above the 1979-2000 average—resulting in the largest July sea ice extent on record.
• According to Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology, the continent received an average of 34.4 mm (1.35 inches) of precipitation during July 2010—this is 55 percent above the 1961-1990 average and the highest value since 1998.

Scientists, researchers and leaders in government and industry use NOAA’s monthly reports to help track trends and other changes in the world’s climate. This climate service has a wide range of practical uses, from helping farmers know what and when to plant, to guiding resource managers with critical decisions about water, energy and other vital assets.

The extreme summer heat and humidity continued to grip the Mid-South over the weekend.  Saturday’s high temperature reached 100 and Sunday’s high was 99.  The heat index was through the roof as well as heat indices during the afternoon hours hovered around 115 degrees both days.   But, a cold front that moved into the area Sunday will bring a bit of relief to the area.  Unfortunately, the front brought little if anything in the way of rain.  The air behind the front is much drier so it won’t be quite so muggy to start the week. 

High temperatures today will reach the low to mid  nineties but with a northeast wind it won’t feel so muggy.  Today is also the first day in quite some time that we’ve not had a heat warning in place.  There is a Heat Advisory for a portion of northern Mississippi but the rest of the Mid-South is warning and advisory free.  It’s the small victories that really count.

We start the week on a dry note but scattered rain and thunderstorms will work back into the forecast mid week and extend into the weekend.

For the first time in what seems like many many days the Mid-South will NOT be under a Heat Warning Monday.  Areas along Interstate 40 and points South will be under a Heat Advisory.  A Heat Advisory still means that heat can be dangerous if one is not cautious.  In essence, it’s a downgrade from a Heat Warning.  A frontal boundary has entered the area and this feature is responsible for killing the warning.  As I glance at Storm Track Doppler 5 right now I do see an isolated thundershower developing in Northeast Arkansas that is moving Southeast.  Additional thundershowers are possible overnight as the front interacts with still very humid air in the region.  Click on the link below for information as to which counties are under the advisory tomorrow.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/meg/

While the Mid-South has been baking for the last several weeks with Triple digit heat one location accustomed to 100 degree temperatures each summer may escape the mark.  Click on the link below for an article I found interesting about Houston, TX weather.

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/metropolitan/7152934.html

Our seemingly endless Heat Wave will continue for at least one more day.  Memphis hit 100 degrees today and the heat index topped out at 114 degrees.  While slight relief is on the horizon, dangerous conditions are expected tomorrow.  Look for highs near 100 with the heat index probably exceeding 110 degrees and maybe approaching 115.  Our pattern will change on Monday, when high temperatures in the middle 90s are forecast as opposed to the Triple digits of late.  Click on the link below for the latest public information statement from our National Weather Service.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=MEG&product=NPW&issuedby=MEG

Another hot and muggy day and another Heat Warning for the entire Action News 5 coverage area today.  High temperatures will reach the upper nineties with heat indices around one hundred five and above.  There is a slight chance for a few isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms today but most of the Mid-South will be hot, dry, and muggy. 

A bit of relief is on the horizon.  A low pressure system has developed in the Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Florida and could become our next tropcial depression if current conditions persist.  This low will likely move into the coastal regions of Texas and Louisiana by the weekend.  Moisture associated with the system will be forced northward into the lower and middle Mississippi River Valley.  This will intersect with a cold front that will move into the Mid-South this weekend.  The combination of the front and the surge of moisture will produce increased cloud cover over our area and increased rain chances Saturday and Sunday.  This should also contribute to slightly cooler temperatures for the weekend as well. 

Right now we wait and see how it all plays out but in the meantime, be prepared for the extreme heat and humidity to continue through the remainder of the work week.

NOAA: July Hotter and Wetter than Normal in U.S. 

The July 2010 average temperature for the contiguous United States was 75.5 degrees F, or 1.3 degrees F, (17^th warmest) above the 1901-2000 long-term average, according to the latest NOAA State of the Climate report. Last month’s average precipitation was 3.24 inches, or 0.48 inch above the 1901-2000 average.

Based on records dating back to 1895, this monthly analysis, prepared by scientists at NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C., is part of the suite of climate services NOAA provides.

U.S. Temperature Highlights: July 2010

• The intense heat either tied, or shattered, July monthly temperature records in several East Coast cities.  Washington D.C. recorded an average temperature of 83.1 degrees F, which tied with July 1993 as the warmest for any calendar month on record. Other July monthly temperature records were broken, or tied, in Atlantic City, N.J. and Hartford, Conn.
• It was the hottest July on record for Delaware and Rhode Island. Along the East Coast, each state from Maine to Florida ranked in their top 10 warmest. Only Montana, Idaho, and Texas had below-normal average temperatures for the month.
• The Southeast and Northeast climate regions experienced their third and fifth warmest July on record, respectively. Of the nine climate regions within the contiguous U.S., none experienced a below normal average temperature.

U.S. Temperature Highlights: May through July and Year-to-Date

• The May-July period was the warmest on record for the Northeast and Southeast climate regions and was the ninth warmest for the Central region. This period produced record warmth for: New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, North Carolina, and South Carolina.
• The Northwest had its sixth coolest May-July period. Below-average temperatures were experienced in Oregon (fifth coolest), Idaho (seventh), and Montana (eighth) during the same period.
• In the Southeast, the below average temperatures from the winter were still evident in the year-to-date (January-July) period, as Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and Florida were below normal. Meanwhile, Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Rhode Island, and Connecticut have experienced a record warm start to the year, resulting in a record warm year-to-date for the Northeast climate region.

U.S. Precipitation Highlights: July

• Wisconsin had its second wettest July, while Texas had its fourth, Iowa its fifth, and Missouri its eighth. By contrast, it was the 10^th driest July for Georgia and Virginia.
• Much of the Plains and Upper Midwest experienced above normal precipitation, triggered by moist tropical air that fueled widespread thunderstorms. Several of these systems stalled out and caused major flooding in some areas.

U.S. Precipitation Highlights: May through July and Year-to-Date

• From May through July, persistent rainfall made this period the wettest for Wisconsin, the second wettest for Illinois and Iowa, the third wettest for Michigan and fifth wettest for Washington State. 
• Precipitation, when averaged across the nation, was much-above-normal, ranking as the 10th wettest May-July period. On the regional level, much of the northern tier United States was above normal. The East North Central had its second wettest May-July. Both the Central and West North Central region had their ninth wettest and the Northwest had its 10th.
• Precipitation was well below normal in Louisiana for the year-to-date period (January-July), as drought conditions continued to deteriorate. The state was more than 9.5 inches below the long-term average for the year, its seventh driest such period in 116 years. Conversely, Iowa was nearly 10 inches above average, its third wettest start to the year.

NCDC’s State of the Climate reports, which assess the current state of the climate, are released soon after the end of each month. These analyses are based on preliminary data, which are subject to revision. Additional quality control is applied to the data when late reports are received several weeks after the end of the month and as increased scientific methods improve NCDC’s processing algorithms.

Scientists, researchers and leaders in government and industry use NOAA’s monthly reports to help track trends and other changes in the world’s climate. This climate service has a wide range of practical uses, from helping farmers know what and when to plant, to guiding resource managers with critical decisions about water, energy and other vital assets.

NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Visit us at http://www.noaa.gov or on Facebook at http://www.facebook.com/usnoaagov.

On the Web:

NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov

Ok so this post is going to focus on the dewpoint.  The reason I picked this to blog about is I believe it’s timely considering how important it will be to our heat index.  To me, if a dewpoint is higher than 70 it is very humid.  So why do we as weathermen and weatherwomen use it as a more valuable tool than relative humidity?

Consider this.  Let’s say the humidity is 85% when the temperature is 55 degrees outside.  Now let’s say the humidity is 54% when the temperature is 92.  Which do you think would feel worse?  This is why the dewpoint is such a better measure of “actual moisture” in the atmosphere.  Relative humidity, is just that, relative.  Humidity does not measure the amount of moisture in a column of air.  Rather, it just calculates how close the temperature is to the dewpoint.  Confused yet?  Click on the link below for a better explanation.  I hope you have a great week and thanks for stopping by to read our blog.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dew_point