The morning started with some heavy rain over much of the Mid-South.  Here at the TV station we picked up just over half an inch of rain.  There is a bit of a lull in the rain right now, but this soggy situation isn’t finished. 

The subtropical jet that has been driving a series of storm systems into the California coast and the southwest is responsible for the activity taking place in the Action News 5 coverage area.  Although, our weather is no comparison to what is taking place to the west.  Let me give you an overview of what is taking place there and then we’ll discuss what will be taking place here. 

In the last few weeks El Nino has strengthened in the Pacific.  As a result the southern leg of the jet stream, which is enhanced as well, is bringing increased moisture and a series of low pressure systems to southern California.   These lows are producing strong thunderstorms,  flash flooding, and mudslides.  This has led to record rainfall in the area and heavy snows have fallen in the mountain ranges.  There was even a tornado warning for the Los Angeles area Tuesday.  An extremely rare event for that part of the country.  An even stronger and more enhanced low pressure system is poised to move on shore today capable of producing an additional eight to ten inches of rain in some areas along with strong gusting winds.  The potential for additional mudslides, flooding, and wind damage has most of the west coast on watch today. 

Here in the Mid-South our situation is not as dire.  We too will be dealing with a series of rainmakers but not the intensity of  those to the west.  Ripples in the atmosphere from those Pacific storms will filter into the area through midday Thursday and again this weekend bringing periods of rain.  With a low pressure system and trailing cold front to the west and a high pressures system in the Gulf along the coast of Florida, an ample amount of warm moist air will filter through today, tonight, and early Thursday. This surge of warm moist air will also result in above average temperatures through the weekend.   

Today will be cloudy with a few showers likely at just about any time but the most likely and heaviest rain will move through tonight.  Rainfall amounts of one to two inches will fall over most of the area from late tonight through early Thursday morning.  A Flash Flood Watch is in effect through that period for northern Mississippi as a result.   There will be a brief and somewhat pleasant dry period in place late Thursday through Friday and much of the day Saturday.  Then the next system arrives from the west, the same system that will plague the California coast and southwest today.  This will produce more rain in the Mid-South Saturday night and early Sunday.  The enhanced dynamics of that system will also be more capable of producing thunderstorms Saturday night especially in the southern portion of the Action News 5 coverage area. 

Once that system moves out we should be in for a drier and more seasonable pattern as a northwest flow returns.  Next week will begin with sunshine and highs back in the upper forties.  In the meantime get set for some soggy weather.