The most recent computer models remain consistent in projecting warmer temperatures just in time for the weekend.

While we’ve struggled to hit the 40 degree mark in parts of the Mid-South, it looks like mid 40s for Friday then pushing 50 for Saturday and especially on Sunday. Despite a noticeable difference, these numbers still fall shy of the average high in the mid 50s.

There is a catch, of course. Overnight lows for the next week will continue to plummet near and below freezing.

Rain chances remain very slim until around Monday night.

After a brief taste of spring the cool snap is back.  A cold front that pushed thr0ugh the Action News 5 coverage area overnight has moved to the east, but a much cooler Canadian airmass is filtering in behind the front. 

There was a lot of rain in advance of the front Sunday with reports of a half inch to just over an inch in many locations including Memphis.  There was even some thunder and small hail that accompanied the rain.  It’s been awhile since we’ve had that mix of weather in the Mid-South.  Now that  the rain has moved out clouds continue to linger well behind the front and a northwest flow will allow afternoon highs to only reach the forties through the week.  Fortunately, a dry pattern will be in place for the week and that pattern should extend into the weekend.

As I’m sure you are aware of the Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympic games are in full swing.  If you haven’t watched any competition yet you should.  It is really quite interesting.  These are the greatest athletes in the world. 

Anyway, on to weather.  It has been and is very warm for this time of the year there and as a result significant snowmelt is occuring.  Bulldozers and big trucks are bringing in snow from all over.  It’s really a huge operation.  Temperatures have been in the 50s in spots and it has even rained.  So while there has been fabulous competition thus far, the weather has not been “all fun and games.”

The Olympics continue on Action News Five for the next 10 days or so.  Check it out if you get the opportunity.  I’m enjoying them a great deal.

Thanks for choosing our station.

Although this system will not be near as strong as the last one there is A Winter Weather Advisory in effect for the potential of tricky travel later tonight.  Here’s the latest from the Memphis Weather Service Office.

 …WINTER WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING…

A COLD FRONT WILL HAVED MOVED THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. COLDER AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
PRODUCE SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-SOUTH TONIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING.

ARZ028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ115-MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-
019>021-048>055-088>092-150630-
/O.CON.KMEG.WW.Y.0008.100214T2200Z-100215T1200Z/
MISSISSIPPI-CROSS-CRITTENDEN-ST. FRANCIS-LEE AR-PHILLIPS-PEMISCOT-
DESOTO-MARSHALL-BENTON MS-TIPPAH-ALCORN-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-TATE-
PRENTISS-COAHOMA-QUITMAN-PANOLA-LAFAYETTE-UNION-PONTOTOC-LEE MS-
ITAWAMBA-TALLAHATCHIE-YALOBUSHA-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-MONROE-LAKE-
OBION-WEAKLEY-HENRY-DYER-GIBSON-CARROLL-LAUDERDALE-TIPTON-HAYWOOD-
CROCKETT-MADISON-CHESTER-HENDERSON-DECATUR-SHELBY-FAYETTE-
HARDEMAN-MCNAIRY-HARDIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…BLYTHEVILLE…WYNNE…WEST MEMPHIS…
FORREST CITY…HELENA…CARUTHERSVILLE…SOUTHAVEN…
OLIVE BRANCH…CORINTH…IUKA…TUNICA…BOONEVILLE…
CLARKSDALE…BATESVILLE…OXFORD…NEW ALBANY…TUPELO…AMORY…
ABERDEEN…UNION CITY…MARTIN…DRESDEN…PARIS…DYERSBURG…
HUMBOLDT…MILAN…HUNTINGDON…COVINGTON…JACKSON…LEXINGTON…
BARTLETT…GERMANTOWN…COLLIERVILLE…MEMPHIS…MILLINGTON…
SOMERVILLE…BOLIVAR…SAVANNAH
331 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2010

…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST
MONDAY…

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST
MONDAY.

* TIMING: LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
  MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS: SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS
  EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS: UNTREATED ROADS AND SIDEWALKS WILL BECOME SNOW
  COVERED AND SLIPPERY BY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY
  RESULT IN HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES.

&&

The Winter Storm Watch from yesterday was downgraded to a Winter Weather Advisory for Mid-South counties east of the Mississippi River (including Shelby County).

It looks like temps will warm into the 40s, then this evening rain could change to snow in some parts of the region, then an upper air disturbance could quickly hit the Mid-South with another round of snow.

One computer model I just received shows a bit more moisture available over the next 24 hours. However, more data is expected to arrive over the next hour, so stay tuned to WMC-TV 5 & wmctv.com for the latest weather info.

As Ron and I are looking at the radar, we’re seeing the back edge of the snowfall nudging across the Mississippi River. It looks like the end of the morning rush hour will coincide with the end of the significant snowfall threat. I expect the Winter Weather Advisory for Shelby County and the Winter Storm Warning for counties to our north and northwest will be allowed to expire at 8:00 a.m.

Thanks to brisk northwesterly winds, wind chills are expected to tumble into the 20s and perhaps into the teens. For the remainder of today and for tomorrow the big weather story around the metro area will be the cold temperatures.

As for the rest of the week, it looks like the mercury will be on the rise!

The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Watch for several counties West of the Mississippi River.  Precipitation is beginning to build in Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.  Most of it so far has been in the form of very light rain.  There is snow in Missouri and Eastern Kansas as we speak.  Temperatures are right at the freezing mark in Memphis.  Rain and Snow is likely Monday with the best chances for accumulating snow North of Memphis. 

Check out the link below for a graphical representation of the Winter Storm Watch.

 http://www.srh.noaa.gov/meg/

Another low pressure system tracks out of southern Texas and along the Gulf Coast today bringing more precipitation to the Action News 5 coverage area.  This system takes a similar track as last week’s winter weather maker.  The big difference is the temperature.  Last week cold air moved in at the surface with warm moist air aloft allowing freezing rain, sleet, and snow to fall over most of the Mid-South.  This time warm moist air is once again moving in aloft but temperatures above freezing are in place at the surface.  This set up will produce nothing more than a cold rain through the day and overnight.  

Freezing rain, sleet, and snow will be much further north this time around.  Parts of Kansas, Missouri, and the Ohio Valley will be in the path.  The low pressure system will move through the northern Gulf of Mexico and then lift north through Alabama and Georgia eventually riding along the eastern seaboard were it will likely gain strength over the warmer waters of the Atlantic coast.  This strengthening low will cause big problems for the northeast this weekend as it produces gusting winds heavy and snow.  

The next weather maker for the Mid-South will again be a low pressure system coming out of northern Mexico and southern Texas.  This will bring another round of rain to the area Monday.  High pressure in the northern Plains will move south injecting a shot of cold air to the middle Mississippi River Valley late Monday.  Should the cold air arrive while moisture is still streaming our of the south it could lead to some snowfall Monday night.  It’s still a little early to be certain but this is one that we’ll be watching.

Right now and through the day we’re dealing with rain….just rain.

The annual tradition of Punxsutawney Phil looking for his shadow occured earlier this morning.  The groundhog did in fact see his shadow, indicating six more weeks of Winter.  There is no science to this tradition but it’s fun to talk about nonetheless.  Here in the Mid-South this week we are looking at a pretty typical Winter forecast with nothing too extreme.  Rain is possible later this week but with temperatures above freezing, just showers are in the outlook and no frozen precipitation is expected.  Click on the link below for more information about the groundhog.

http://www.gather.com/viewArticle.action?articleId=281474978027230&grpId=3659174697244816