For the last several days we have experienced North and Northwesterly winds for the most part.  Winds tonight should shift around to the Southeast.  This is very important with regard to our next system that will affect us tomorrow.  Southeast winds will bring a change, a new airmass that will be warmer than our current one.  As a result, we are expecting mainly rain tomorrow instead of anything frozen.  It’s possible a few areas North of Memphis could see a few sleet pellets.  In any event, amounts should be light.  We are not forecasting major problems at this point.  Stay with us, however, as we of course will bring you any last minute changes.  We wish you a great rest of the day and night.

Our next round of precipitation will move into the Mid-South within the next 24 hours.  At this point it looks like nothing more than a cold rain.  However…….there is a very slight chance that some precipitation may move into the area before sunrise Wednesday morning.   With temperatures expected to fall into the low to mid thirties overnight any precipitation that develops that early could fall in the form of sleet or freezing rain.  The main area of concern will be along and north of I-40.  

Here’s what I think:  it’s going to rain Wednesday.

Low pressure will be moving out of northern Mexico and southern Texas today and tonight riding along the Gulf Coast ejecting moisture into the lower Mississippi River Valley.  There will also be a surge of warm air accompanying it.  A cold front will exit southern Canada and the northern tier of the U.S. today pushing south.  The moisture and the cold front will converge on the Mid-South, BUT not at the same time.  By the time the front arrives the low pressure system and the Gulf moisture will be gone having already moved east. 

Here’s what you can expect for the next few days.  The day ahead will be partly cloudy on average with afternoon highs only in the upper thirties to lower forties.  Clouds will increase late in the day and overnight and there will likely be some precipitation that develops well after midnight but it should be outside the Action News 5 coverage area.  Wednesday will begin cloudy and cold with most of the rain developing by midday.  Temperatures by that time should be near forty so it should be just a cold rain.  The precipitation will exit the area before 10 PM Wednesday night.  Clouds will remain overnight and temperatures will only fall into the mid to upper thirties.  The cold front should move through the area and move east by early Thursday morning.  Clouds will remain through much of the day and high temperatures will only reach the low to mid forties.  The coldest air will arrive well behind the front Thursday night dropping temperatures into the low to mid twenties that night. 

Sunshine will return Friday and hold through much of the weekend but the cold Canadian air will hold on as well allow afternoon highs to only reach the upper thirties to near forty and overnight lows to fall into the low to mid twenties. 

So, you’ll need sunglasses and a jacket today, an umbrella and raincoat tomorrow, and then the big heavy coat with hat and gloves for the end of the week and weekend.

The most frequent email received lately pertains to whether we’re going to have  a white Christmas in Memphis.

In short, unless the system delivering the rain coming over the next two days gets caught by colder air returning to the Mid-South, the answer is “no.”  A slowly exiting system makes flurries possible, but we’ll see rain more than anything else.

If you like interactive maps, check out the “White Christmas Probability” page courtesy of The Weather Channel, part of the NBC family of networks.

In the meantime, we’ll have a high near 60 today as well as Wednesday & Christmas Eve.  We’re looking at a high in the mid 40s for Christmas Day.

You are probably aware of the historic Snowstorm in the Northeast that basically wound down late today.  Some of the snow amounts were nothing short of amazing as several locations received record amounts.  Those that were involved will never forget Mother Nature’s fury this time around.  The map shown below is a measure of current snow cover.  Not surprisingly, Memphis is not involved.  Check it out.

Yes, I am indeed talking about overnight packages. Not the ones that usually come before 10:30 a.m. or before 7:00 p.m. (depending how fast you want fast to be). I’m talking about tracking Santa. Many are in the midst of observing Hanukkah, but I have received some requests for info on Kris Kringle…so here you go.

TRACKING SANTA LINK

There is already a countdown on the site, and it’s not a bad time killer from what I hear . Feel free to copy and paste the link to send to others. Please tell your friends and family where you got the link. It absolutely makes our day to get your questions and feedback!

We dry out for Sunday, although a little drizzle & fog can’t be ruled out early in the morning. It’s going to be warmer, too!  I’ll have your Sunday morning update, and John will tell you about the chance for Monday rain on his Sunday evening newscasts.

2009 Global Temperatures Well Above Average – Slightly Above-Average for U.S.

U.S. precipitation above normal for 2009

Global surface temperatures for 2009 will be well above the long-term average, while the annual temperature for the contiguous United States will likely be above the long-term average, according to a preliminary analysis by NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C. The analysis is based on global records, which began in 1880 and U.S. records beginning in 1895. The NCDC analysis is part of the suite of climate services NOAA provides.

Global Temperature and Precipitation Highlights:

• Global land and ocean annual surface temperatures through October are the fifth warmest on record, at 1.01 degrees F above the long-term average.
• The 2000 – 2009 decade will be the warmest on record, with its average global surface temperature about 0.96 degree F above the 20th century average. This will easily surpass the 1990s value of 0.65 degree F.
• Ocean surface temperatures (through October) were the sixth warmest on record, at 0.85 degree F above the 20th century average.
• Land surface temperatures through October were the fifth warmest on record, at 1.44 degree F above the 20th century average.
• Arctic sea ice extent reached its third smallest annual minimum on record behind 2007 and 2008. The past five years have produced the lowest sea ice extents on record.

• NOAA scientists project 2009 will be one of the 10 warmest years of the global surface temperature record, and likely finish as the fourth, fifth or sixth warmest year on record.

U.S. Temperature and Precipitation Highlights:

• The average annual temperature for the contiguous United States is projected to be above normal. Precipitation across the contiguous United States in 2009 will be above the long-term average.
• Winter (December-February) 2008-09 temperatures were near normal overall for the contiguous United States. Texas had its driest winter on record, while North Dakota had its wettest.
• Springtime (March-May) temperatures for the nation were above normal, with only four states (Washington, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Arkansas) cooler than normal. Georgia experienced its second wettest spring and the Southeast climate region (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina and Virginia) as a whole had its fifth wettest such period.
• The average summer (June-August) temperature in the contiguous United States was below the long-term average for the first time since 2004. Only the Northwest averaged above normal temperature readings during the period.
• Autumn (September-November) was a season of extremes for the nation. Nevada and California experienced record warmth in September. October was abnormally cool for the vast majority of the nation, while November brought substantially warmer-than-normal conditions.

Other Highlights:

• The Atlantic hurricane season had below average activity, with nine named storms, three of them hurricanes.
• A major winter storm in late March established new 24-hour snowfall records for three states: Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas.
• There were 1,110 preliminary tornado reports across the United States through November, making 2009 likely to be the sixth-quietest tornado year since 1990.

• A fast start to the U.S. wildfire season slowed by mid-year. The nationwide acreage burned by wildfire declined to below average by year’s end. The annual number of fires remained slightly above average.

While I am a meteorologist and not an astronomist, I do find space fascinating.  Each year as World technology advances we learn more and more about the seemingly endless Space Front.  Click on the link below for some images that are nothing short of amazing.  Enjoy!

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21495006/ns/tech__science_photos/?GT1=43001