Cool Canadian High pressure is settling in across the area.  It’s being drug down by strong, deep Low pressure over the Great Lakes states.  In fact, interestingly enough, it is bringing Lake Effect rain.  You normally hear about Lake Effect snow, but it’s still far too warm to bring the white stuff just yet.  For us, near perfect conditions abound.  We are forecasting crisp lows in the 40s across the region tonight.  It will be warmer in Memphis, as it usually is, as the low dips to 52.  Plenty of sunshine is forecast again on Tuesday as a room high temperature of 72 is forecast.  Enjoy the Fabulous Fall weather.  Our next rain chances are days away, specifically Thursday night into Friday morning.

Since we’ve spent the last several post talking about rain, I thought I’d post something a little different today.  Beginning next Tuesday and every Tuesday through the month of October the Action News 5 Storm Team is hitting the road for another tour of the Weather Road Show.  Our last two tours were extremely successfull and well attended so we’re doing it again. 

This season we’ll have five stops.  Our first will be next Tuesday, September 29, at Horseshoe Casino in Tunica, MS.  Dave Brown will be there doing the weather live at 5 and 6 PM.  John, Tim, and I will then join him for our one hour presentation begining at 6:30 PM.  Even though our first stop is at a casino this is a family event.  There will be a separate entrance just for families so you don’t have to worry about wandering through the casino with your kids.  The program last about an hour.  We’ve got a great video presentation that highlights the equipment that we use including Storm Track Doppler 5 and Live VIPIR 5.  There is also a facinating segment detailing some of the wild weather that has moved through the Mid-South recently and over the years.  There’s one segment in the video that you have to see !  It’s Dave Brown doing the weather live near Graceland after a tornado touchdown!  It’s a blast from the past that you don’t want to miss.  After the video we have a question and answer session that’s always fun and informative.  And there’s always time for some meet and greet afterwards.  We’ll have t-shirts and autographed pictures too.  So, we hope you’ll bring the family and your weather question to our first stop on tour.  I promise you an evening of information, fun, and entertainment.  The best part….IT’S FREE!  So join us at the Horseshoe in Tunica this coming Tuesday.  We’d love to meet you. 

Oh, yeah, one other thing.  Our engineering staff will also be in hand to answer any questions that you may have about the recent digital TV transition.  If you’ve had problems recieving our signal or any others since the digital switch then you’ll want to be there.  I know I’m biased, but our engineering staff is absolutely brilliant and they should be able to help you with any TV reception problem that you may have.  So, there’s another reason to attend. 

Here is a complete list of the 5 stops on this season’s Action News 5 Weather Road Show:

• 9/29/09 Tunica, MS

Bluesville at Horseshoe Casino

1021 Casino Center Drive

Robinsonville, MS 38664

Phone: (800) 303-7463

FAMILIES ARE WELCOME

• 10/6/09 Batesville, MS

Batesville Civic Center

290 Civic Center Dr
Batesville, MS 38606-7672
(662) 563-1392

• 10/13/09 Atoka, TN

7785 Highway 51 S

Brighton, TN 38011

(901)837-5600

• 10/20/09 West Memphis, AR

Mid-South Community College
2000 West Broadway
West Memphis, AR 72301

870-733-6722

• 10/27/09  Somerville, TN

Fair Theater

114 E. Market St. Somerville, TN 38068

(901) 465-7301

A Flash Flood Warning is ongoing for part of our North Mississippi counties.  This warning is certainly legitimate as some 2-4 inches of rain has fallen in a short amount of time.  Please do not travel into these areas, as this is a situation that could pose life-threatening conditions.  The areas in red on the map below are under the warning, which goes into the 7 o’clock hour.

5:21 pm Tuesday.  That’s when Fall officially begins.  Most folks that I talk to welcome Fall.  While I do love summers and hate to see them go, Fall is always a nice breath of fresh air. (And it also means Football Season)  Anyway, here’s a link to an explanation of the changing of seasons.  It’s worth a read.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autumn

Today is the last full day of summer.  Fall officially begins at the Autumnal Equinox tomorrow, Tuesday Sept. 22, at 5:21 PM.  Although summer will end, the rain will not.  (Remember, I’m just the messenger.  I hate this as much as you do.)  It looks like we’ll still be dealing with periods of rain for a few more days. 

Today will be a day of more clouds than rain.  Right now we’re in between two systems so the pattern will be a little drier, but we’re not completely eliminating the chance for rain.  There is a trough just to the east of us along the Tennessee River Valley.  That should keep most of the rain east of that line primarily into northeastern Mississippi, northern Alabama, and middle Tennessee.  There is still the chance for rain elsewhere but the chance is not as great. 

But, don’t get too excited just yet.  There is a cold front coming out of the Central Plains today.  This front will move into the Mid-South Tuesday and stall over the area through Wednesday and, you guessed it, will bring more rain into the area.  The rainfall will be scattered so it won’t rain all day both days but rain will remain in the forecast Tuesday and Wednesday and there could be periods of heavy downpours. 

The front will just wash out over the Mid-South by Thursday diminishing our rain chances, but I don’t think it will eliminate the clouds.  The sky will be partly to mostly cloudy Thursday and Friday with afternoon highs in the mid eighties.  With a wet ground and a southerly flow of warm air remaining in place it will be a bit muggy both days. 

ANOTHER cold front will come through Saturday.  This one will……you guessed it again……bring more rain to the Mid-South.  BUT, this front will leave behind some much needed, much drier air, and SUNSHINE!  Yes, sunshine!  High pressure will build in behind the front to quickly move it east and make for a nice fall pattern that should hold on for the start of next week. 

So, just hold on and get through this week because we have some really nice weather to look forward too. 

Here’ something else to look forward to, the Action News 5 Weather Road Show is coming to a town near you once again this fall.  Our first stop is Tunica, MS on Tuesday September 29.  We’ll be in Batesville, MS October 6.  Then Atoka, TN October 13, West Memphis, AR October 20, and Somerville, TN October 27.  We’ll have more details on the exact location and time in each town in the coming days.  So, stay tuned to WMC TV and Action News 5 and our blog to find out more.

While clouds are floating through the region this late Sunday night, no rain currently resides on the radar.  It has been quite a while since we have been able to say that.  The Low pressure area that brought us all the rain is now North of the region, and the air is more stable behind the feature.  Rain chances will stick around Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday unfortunately.  Here is the latest radar image of the Southeast.

A Flood Watch is in effect for all of the Action News Five Coverage Area once again today as the threat for heavy rain in a few locations exists.  The best chances for steadier rains will occur West of the Mississippi River.  The Low pressure center is in a weakening mode but it will be moving our way throughout the day.  Here’s the graphic of the watch courtesty of our National Weather Service in Memphis.

The system featuring low pressure centered near the Arklatex is still stuck in semi-limbo.  While there is a small amount of wiggle room, high pressure centers on either side are blocking the path of exit.

Thursday's Surface Map

The result: continued rain chances for the remainder of the work week.  We’re keep an eye on a potential cold front that could extend our rain chances through the weekend.

In the meantime, expect a high temp near 80 degrees today.

NOAA: Warmest Global Sea-Surface Temperatures on Record

for August and Summer

          The world’s ocean surface temperature was the warmest for any August on record, and the warmest on record averaged for any June-August (Northern Hemisphere summer/Southern Hemisphere winter) season according to NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C. The preliminary analysis is based on records dating back to 1880.

NCDC scientists also reported that the combined average global land and ocean surface temperature for August was second warmest on record, behind 1998. For the June-August 2009 season, the combined global land and ocean surface temperature was third warmest on record.

Global Highlights – Summer

• The June-August worldwide ocean surface temperature was also the warmest on record at 62.5 degrees F, 1.04 degrees F above the 20^th century average of 61.5 degrees F.
• The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for the June-August season was 61.2 degrees F, which is the third warmest on record and 1.06 degrees F above the 20^th century average of 60.1 degrees F.

Global Highlights – August

• The worldwide ocean surface temperature of 62.4 degrees F was the warmest on record for any August, and 1.03 degrees F above the 20^th century average of 61.4 degrees F.
• Separately, the global land surface temperature of 58.2 degrees F was 1.33 degrees F above the 20th century average of 56.9 degrees F, and ranked as the fourth warmest August on record.
• Large portions of the world’s land mass observed warmer-than-average temperatures in August. The warmest departures occurred across Australia, Europe, parts of the Middle East, northwestern Africa, and southern South America. Both Australia and New Zealand had their warmest August since their records began.
• The Southern Hemisphere average temperatures for land and ocean surface combined were the warmest on record for August.

Other Notable Developments

• For the year to date, the combined global land and ocean surface temperature of 58.3 degrees F tied with 2003 for the fifth-warmest January-August period on record. This value is 0.99 degree F above the 20^th century average.
• According to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), Arctic sea ice covered an average of 2.42 million square miles during August. This is 18.4 percent below the 1979-2000 average extent, and is generally consistent with a decline of August sea ice extent since 1979.
• NSIDC data indicated Antarctic sea ice extent in August was 2.7 percent above the 1979-2000 average. This is consistent with the trend during recent decades of modest increases in August Antarctic sea ice extent.

The image I am posting here is a 24 hour rainfall estimate.  It is hard to even pick out the state lines with all of the rain that has fallen.  In fact, some areas have picked up around 4 inches, indicated by the darker green.  See if you can find where the Low pressure area might be.

Hint : It’s just South of PBF (which stands for Pine Bluff, Arkansas)

It may go against conventional wisdom, but usually the driest areas are right under the Low itself.