As you probably know by now Super Bowl XLIII is this Sunday.  Without question it is the single most sporting event viewed worldwide year after year.  Needless to say, it’s a big deal for many!  I personally love the Super Bowl because it’s the only game I can watch and look forward to the next commercial break.  I can’t wait to see what unfolds this year.  What a story Arizona is by the way.  Who would have thought at (9-7) during the regular season they would be in the Football Championship of the World?  And if you respond, I did, I’m not quite sure you are telling the truth.  Anyway, the stadium carries the name “Raymond James Stadium.” Many in the NFL consider it one of the best venues to hit the gridiron. The weather looks fantastic with sunshine and highs in the 60s.  The weather isn’t always great for these games though.  Consider this, a Super Bowl was played in an ice storm back in 2000.  Two Super Bowls had snow on game day, and many Super Bowls have had rain in the area under gloomy conditions.  Severe weather season is about to ramp up in Tampa, and thankfully this year won’t feature any of those characteristics.  Kickoff is slated for 5:28 PM on our station.  (WMC TV-5)  I really don’t need to give you a reason to watch, but if you don’t you’ll miss out on “many a conversation” come Monday morning.  Thanks for stopping by to check out our blog.  I wish you a great night.

Our computer program we use to update the web is undergoing system maintenance this morning.  As a result, here is our weather update this morning.

Get ready for very cold weather on Tuesday. As a rather large Mid-level disturbance shoots down from the North flurries are possible. Moisture levels should still remain low but this is something we will definitely keep an eye on. Expect highs just above freezing. Tuesday night features an Arctic airmass as lows dip into the lower and middle 20s.

A moderating trend will commence Wednesday. Look for lots of sunshine as the mercury climbs into the middle 40s by the afternoon hours. Mostly sunny skies are again forecast Thursday with highs back in the 50s. Clouds will increase Friday but conditions should remain benign as even warmer numbers in the middle 50s take over once again.

I hope you have a great Saturday. Thank you, as always, for choosing Action News Five.

- NWA Meteorologist John Bryant

Even though we got some snow yesterday, about a half an inch to an inch in most areas, I was asked the question again.  It’s a question that I’ve been asked a thousand times before.  The question was e-mailed around 5 AM yesterday morning BEFORE the rain changed to snow.  What’s the question you ask?  Why does it seem that Memphis always misses the the snow? 

Here’s the e-mail I received:

I NEED ANSWERS!!!  You can give it to me straight…just need to know:

WHY DOES THIS ALWAYS HAPPEN?

Is it the “Bluff Effect”?

Is it the “Heat from the City Effect”?

Is it the Mayor??

Is it “Dave Brown hates snow and has a LOT more power than we all thought?”

Is it a fluke?? (Which doesn’t seem logical since it happens so often)

Why does the stuff LITERALLY go around, above, below…everywhere but here…

I can’t take the disappointment anymore….really….

Well, here’s the answer:

It’s a matter of geographical location and thermodynamics.  Three things are required for snow; moisture, lift, and cold air in all levels of the atmosphere.  Due to our geographical position it is often difficult for us to have all three of these elements in place at the same time especially when it comes to temperature.  As was the case overnight Tuesday, we had moisture and lift but the temperature element was not there.  Yes, it was cold at the surface but the temperature was warmer with height.   Due to our southern geographical location warm air is typically in close proximity during the winter months.  This warm air will provide moisture but it will also override a cold air-mass and cause the warming of middle layers of the atmosphere to rise above freezing.  In order for an ice crystal in the upper levels of the atmosphere to reach the ground it must have temperatures at or below freezing from its point of origination to the surface.  If it falls through a layer of air that is above freezing and more than 1500 ft in depth that ice crystal will melt completely.  If the layer is less than 1500 ft thick the crystal will not melt completely but will instead melt to some degree and combine with other slightly melted crystals to form an ice pellet.  Or if it does melt completly then it must fall through another layer of air that is below freezing and at least 1500 ft thick for it to refreeze but it will not be an ice crystal it will instead be an ice pellet since it would be a frozen raindrop, we refer to this as sleet.  Now if the temperature is at or below freezing at the surface but the layer of air is not at least 1500 ft then the melted ice crystal or raindrop will reach the surface in liquid form but will freeze on contact with the frozen surface, thus freezing rain. 

It is also important to keep in mind that cold air is heavier, more dense, and holds less moisture than warm air.  A strong cold air-mass that moves in from the north will be drier and since it is more dense it will suppress the ability for air to rise or lift and it will force the warm moisture rich air-mass south so, that by the time it arrives here we get the cold temperatures and maybe enough moisture to produce clouds.  So, with limited moisture and little if any lift we don’t get snow we just get cloudy and cold.  On the other hand if there is plenty of moisture and lift but a layer of warm air near the surface then we get a cold rain instead.    By the way, all of those elements finally came together for a brief period shortly after 5 AM Tuesday morning and we did indeed get some snow.    

Snow is not common in the Mid-South during the winter months but it’s certainly not rare.  It’s not a fluke, don’t blame the bluffs, the mayor, or the weatherman (Dave Brown really does like snow, just not a lot of it.)  As you can see it is a very fine balance of elements that must be in place for snow to fall in the Mid-South.  It’s the law of thermodynamics and our geographical position that are to blame.

The overnight rain and freezing rain quickly but briefly changed to sleet and then to snow.  For most areas the snow lasted about an hour.  It was of the big wet snowflake variety that fell over the area.  In less that fifteen minutes snow was covering the ground.  As quickly as it began it ended but not before leaving between a half an inch to an inch.  Many schools, businesses, and events were cancelled as a result.  As expected whenever there is snow in the area, no matter how much, traffic was congested through the morning rush hour.  Whereas the weather created a headache for motorist it was a bonus for school childern as many schools closed for the day. 

Twins Arabella and Eve-Elyse Hall took advantage of their day out of school to get outside and play in the snow.

Other Mid-Southerns aren’t having so much fun in the cold weather as ice coated many counties in northeastern Arkansas, the Missouri bootheel, and northwest Tennessee.  The weight of the ice caused trees and powerlines to fall in many of those areas leaving countless homes without power as we head into a very cold night.  All toll, the storm has left more than 900,000 people without power from the Central Plains and Texas into the Northeastern U.S. 

Here’s a shot sent to us from a viewer in Newbern, TN showing what the weight of the ice can do to a tree.

Dry weather will settle into the area for the next few days and some warmer temperatures will accompany that dry streak.  Dave Brown will let you know what to expect for highs and lows and he’ll have details on our next chance for precipitation.  Be sure to tune into Action News 5 at 5, 6, and 10. 

The National Weather Service has issued an Ice Storm Warning for Memphis.  Here is an image of all the counties involved.  Their bulletin regarding this situation follows…The dark purple color represents all the counties currently under the warning…Stay tuned!

…ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED AN ICE STORM
WARNING…WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY. THE
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

RAIN WILL SWITCH OVER TO FREEZING RAIN AFTER 10 PM CST TONIGHT.
THE FREEZING RAIN WILL THEN SWITCH OVER TO A MIXTURE OF SLEET
AND SNOW AFTER 3 AM CST.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH CAN BE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION…A DUSTING OF SLEET AND
SNOW WITH ACCUMULATIONS UP TO ONE INCH IS POSSIBLE.

AN ICE STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF ICE ACCUMULATIONS
WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. TRAVEL IS STRONGLY
DISCOURAGED. COMMERCE WILL LIKELY BE SEVERELY IMPACTED. IF YOU
MUST TRAVEL…KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT…FOOD…AND WATER IN YOUR
VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. ICE ACCUMULATIONS AND WINDS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO SNAPPED POWER LINES AND FALLING TREE BRANCHES THAT
ADD TO THE DANGER

Winter weather is still possible across parts of the Mid-South tonight, mainly in the form of freezing rain.  Most of the precipitation will remain all liquid in Memphis and points Southward.  A sliver of our area, however, still has the potential for big problems.  These areas specifically include but are not limited to Jonesboro, Kennett (Missouri) and maybe even Blytheville.  It should still be noted that the exact line between rain and freezing rain is near impossible to predict with precision.  A degree here or there can make a huge difference.  If you are traveling in or near these areas exercise extreme caution and maybe even re-evaluate your plans.  Power outages are still possible so be prepared.  Here is the latest map courtesy of the National Weather Service that outlines the warnings and advisories.  Stay with Action News Five for the latest information.

These are the counties that are currently under a Winter Storm Watch beginning Monday night and lasting into Wednesday morning.  It is very possible the locations could be upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning or an Ice Storm Warning.  All of the counties in blue are in the watch.  “Click” on the image for better viewing.

In addition, here is the latest statement from the National Weather Service concerning this event.

URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
845 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2009

…MAJOR ICE STORM POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS…THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL AND EXTREME NORTHWEST TENNESSEE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING…

.COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS…THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND EXTREME NORTHWEST TENNESSEE.
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL
ARKANSAS AND SPREAD EAST OVER THE NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS…THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL…AND EXTREME NORTHWEST
TENNESSEE.

ARZ008-009-017-018-026-MOZ113-115-TNZ001-002-261045-
/O.EXT.KMEG.WS.A.0001.090127T0000Z-090128T1200Z/
RANDOLPH-CLAY-LAWRENCE-GREENE-CRAIGHEAD-DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT-LAKE-
OBION-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…WALNUT RIDGE…PARAGOULD…JONESBORO…
KENNETT…CARUTHERSVILLE…UNION CITY
845 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2009

…WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT…

THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

FREEZING RAIN WILL BEGIN MONDAY EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS…THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL…AND EXTREME NORTHWEST
TENNESSEE. A MAJOR ICE STORM IS LIKELY ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.
SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
ALSO…THIS WILL BE A LONG DURATION EVENT…ONLY ADDING TO THE
HAZARDOUS NATURE. TREES AND POWER LINES WILL LIKELY BECOME ICE
COVERED…LEADING TO POSSIBLE LOSS OF POWER ACROSS THE AREA.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW…SLEET…OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
RESIDENTS IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD PREPARE WINTER STORM
CONDITIONS. MAKE SURE YOUR CAR IS WINTERIZED AND IN GOOD WORKING
ORDER. ALSO MAKE SURE YOU HAVE AN ADEQUATE SUPPLY OF FOOD…WATER
AND THE NECESSARY MEDICATION TO LAST THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE
WINTER STORM. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS

Check out this special weather statement from the National Weather Service for the possibility of Winter weather early this week…

…FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-40…

A COLD FRONT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT TONIGHT AND STALL OUT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THIS FRONT
WILL RESULT IN PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY EVENING ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. MEANWHILE…COLD AIR WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40 WITH
LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. AS A
RESULT…SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING
RAIN ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION…TEMPERATURES WHEN THE
PRECIPITATION OCCURS AND THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
PERSONS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH SHOULD STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST
INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE REGARDING THIS
WINTER WEATHER EVENT.

As I arrived to work this morning and took a first glance from the overnight models I noticed a significant Ice Storm is possible for some Monday night and Tuesday, maybe even beyond.  The best chances for problems will likely occur North of I-40.  In situations like this, one or two degrees can make all the difference in the world.  This is something our Storm Tracking Team will certainly keep a very close eye on over the coming days and you’ll want to stay with us for sure.  If you do not currently receive our weather emails, you can sign up by clicking “weather” and then scrolling down to the bottom of the screen and then check the box “weather email alerts.”  This impressive picture is from an Ice Storm in Maine and is courtesy of the Associated Press.

I hope we don’t have any conditions like these in the Mid-South this week.  I will continue to provide email updates throughout the rest of today and tonight and keep checking out our blog for updates as well.  Stay warm today, it will be cold.  Thanks for making us a part of your day and checking out our weather blog.

Our cold front that is moving through the Mid-South tonight means business.  No, I’m not talking about big thunderstorms or flooding rains, but a sharply different airmass.  As Dave said earlier today on Action News Five, even though it has only been a couple of days or so, it’s easy to get used to the 60s.  The mercury will continue to drop overnight and eventually bottom out in the middle to upper 30s by morning.  Saturday will be gloomy and cold, and it will certainly be a change from recent days.  A continued chill will linger into Sunday and then a rather unsettled but hopefully benign pattern begins Monday.  This pattern will feature cool days with rain chances both Monday and Tuesday.  Tim Van Horn and I will, of course, keep you updated on all the latest information you need to know throughout the weekend.  Thank you, as always, for choosing out station.  We appreciate you and all of our viewers.