An unseasonably strong front is moving through the area.  This, combined with a deep Mid-Level trough of low pressure will bring fine fine weather over the next 48 hours or so.  This means the rain is over as drier air is punching into the Action News Five coverage area.  Very nice weather, at least for this time of year, is on tap Monday and Tuesday.  Low Humidity, lots of sunshine, and a North wind will make it feel very tolerable.  In fact, this may even be an instance where the heat index is lower than the actual temperature!

There is quite a bit to discuss in our seven day forecast this time around. Look for scattered thunderstorms today, as widespread coverage of rain should hold temperatures down compared to recent days. Upper 80s are likely in the city of Memphis with cooler values to the North. Some of the storms today could be strong with locally heavy downpours. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the Mid-South under a slight risk of Severe Weather. The thunder-boomers will likely last into tonight as a cold front moves Southward. Expect overnight lows near 70 with gusty Southwest winds. We will carefully track this system over the next 24 hours.

Rain could possibly linger into early Sunday, especially across our Northern Mississippi counties. Drier air and cooler numbers will filter in tomorrow afternoon. This will translate to highs in the middle 80s.

Monday and Tuesday look great! Lots of sunshine is forecast with highs in the middle to upper 80s. Low humidity will make it feel comfortable. You will definitely notice a significant and might I add pleasant difference.

Highs will hit 90 Wednesday and Thursday as the humidity creeps up a bit. Skies will probably remain dry.

As we peek ahead to the Fourth of July highs in the low 90s and slight chances for rain exist. I should note that the chances for rain are only about 20% or less as a front moves toward the region. We have plenty of time to track that and we of course will and continue to update the forecast as that time period moves closer.

I hope you have a great weekend. Keep the umbrella handy as rain is very likely today.

- NWA Meteorologist John Bryant

If you have been outside today you already know the uncomfortable humidity is in “full-swing” across the Mid-South.  A few showers have even popped up on the “Storm Track Doppler Radar.”  While the muggy conditions are going to hang on for at least the next 24 hours and provide rain chances tomorrow, a break from the steamy weather is in sight!  A front will push through the area late tomorrow and usher drier air into the Action News Five coverage area.  While temperatures will stay warm Sunday and Monday, the humidity will be low and comforable heat, if you can call it that, will return.  Rain probabilities will be very low early next week as a result.

I wish you a great weekend.  Thanks for checking out our blog.

As the newest data comes in from our evening models it appears this week may be a bit warmer than previously thought.  Some of the projections suggest a high of 96 by Tuesday.  That may be just a tad too high considering the copious rains this Spring but it nonetheless perhaps signals a new trend, a trend certainly worth watching in the coming days!

I like to post the National Weather Service Forecast Discussion from time to time.  They provide a very detailed, technical analysis of what is going on and what is to come over the next seven days.  Check it out, and check out the link if interested.

.DISCUSSION…

A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH THIS EVENING
AND WILL REMAIN IN THE CWA THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. CURRENTLY…THERE ARE
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS…EASTERN MISSOURI
AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND FRONT.
THESE AREAS OF ACTIVITY SHOULD SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE MIDSOUTH LATER
TONIGHT. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG INITIALLY HOWEVER AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES THE STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN. ON MONDAY…EXPECT
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP AS DAYTIME HEATING BEGINS.
SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE ON MONDAY WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID
60S TO LOWER 70S WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CWA
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE TIME PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE ONE CAVEAT WITH A SHORTWAVE THAT SKIRTS
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS SHORTWAVE SKIRTING THE AREA AT LEAST ON THE
12Z RUNS THUS WILL CONTINUE WITH 20 POPS ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. AFTER WEDNESDAY…EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BE DRY
UNTIL MOST LIKELY SATURDAY WHEN AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL ALLOW
DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. EXPECT DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
AGAIN ON SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO UPPER 70S.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/meg/productview.php?pil=MEGAFDMEG&version=0

Well, here we are folks!  Summer has arrived! 

How did we ring in the new season?  Temperatures in the 80s, which falls short of the normal high of 90 degrees!  Kind of a nice way to eeeeeease into the anticipated hotter days ahead.  Cloud cover and northerly-northwesterly winds have helped nudge the temps and humidity levels down.

This is the time of year when outdoor activities are scheduled amidst some stifling conditions.  This is a nice little review of Summer safety tips provided by the Red Cross, including some general terminology and care suggestions.

Are you planning to travel out of town (or the country) soon?  As an avid travel geek, I’m very proud to share our station’s own Travel Center, chock full of weather info, plus things you’ll need to know when packing to have a better experience when navigating the highly-regulated world of airports.  While we can’t chop trip prices like William Shatner, our site can assist with most everything else.

Gotta go!  Time for a pre-newscast chat with Ben Watson.  Anna Marie’s off today, and the men are ruling the roost…with her permission of course!

Have a great day!!!

Oh, I almost forgot to include an image!  Random pic of Elvis impersonator and me.  If the King is wearing shades to protect his eyes, it must be a good idea.

Here is our late night surface map.  There were showers around earlier today, most outside of our coverage area however.  Often times early in the Summer thundershowers can fire during the heating of the day, only to find their energy source depleted once the sun sets.  The front you see on the map here is rather insignificant and will not bring cooler air to the Mid-South.  Get ready for hotter temperatures tomorrow, but thankfully the humidity will remain in the tolerable range.  Have a great night!

U.S. Has 36th Coolest Spring on Record

The March-May spring season was the 36th coolest on record for the contiguous United States, according to an analysis by NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C.  Separately, last month ended as the 34th coolest May for the contiguous United States, based on records dating back to 1895.

The average spring temperature of 51.4 degrees F was 0.5 degree F below the 20th century average. The average May temperature of 60.3 degrees F was 0.7 degree F below the 20th century mean, based on preliminary data.

U.S. Temperature Highlights

* The March-May temperatures were cooler than average from the Northwest and extending throughout the central Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. In all, 19 states had a cooler-than-average spring.

* Twenty-five states were cooler than average for May. Pennsylvania was much cooler than average and ranked eighth coolest.

* The unusually cool temperatures kept the nation’s overall temperature-related residential energy demand for May above average. Based on NOAA’s Residential Energy Demand Temperature Index, contiguous U.S. temperature-related energy demand was approximately 3.5 percent above average in May, but near average for the spring season.

* Florida, Texas, and Washington were warmer than average for May.

U.S. Precipitation Highlights

For the spring, Missouri had its fourth wettest, Arkansas its sixth wettest, Indiana and Iowa their eighth wettest and Illinois its 10th wettest. For May, Arizona, Maryland, and Nebraska were much wetter than average, with Nebraska ranking fourth wettest and Maryland fifth wettest on record.  California had its driest spring on record, while Nevada and Utah had their 10th and 11th driest on record. For May, two states were much drier than average — New Hampshire had its ninth driest May on record and Florida its 10th driest.

Rainfall improved drought conditions across parts of the northern Rockies, but moderate-to-extreme drought continued throughout the Great Plains, Southeast, and Southwest. About 18 percent of the U.S. was classified in moderate-to-extreme drought at the end of May compared to 23 percent a month ago, based on the U.S. Drought Monitor.

Several strong weather systems dumped heavy rains across parts of the central Plains, Ohio Valley, and mid-Atlantic states. In some areas, this pattern has continued for the last six months, with Missouri and Illinois having the wettest December-May on record. By the end of May, 24 percent of the contiguous U.S. was classified in moderate-to-extreme “wet spell”

conditions compared to 16 percent six months ago, based on the Palmer Index.

One system we have to watch very carefully this time of year is a Mesoscale Convective Complex.  It’s a cluster of thunderstorms that usually develops at night and moves Southeast.

Here is the process of development courtesy of Wikipedia…

MCCs commonly develop from the merging of thunderstorms into a squall line which eventually meet the MCC criteria. Furthermore, some MCC formation can be tracked from the plains in Colorado back to the Rocky Mountains. These are called “orogenic” complexes.^[2] The characteristics of the meteorological environment that MCCs form in are strong warm air advection into the formation environment by a southerly low-level jet stream (wind maximum), strong moisture advection which increases the relative humidity of the formation environment, convergence of air near the surface, and divergence of air aloft. These conditions are most prominent in the region ahead of an upper level trough. The systems begin in the afternoon as scattered thunderstorms which organize overnight in the presence of wind shear (wind speed and direction changes with height). The probability for severe weather is highest in the early stages of formation, during the afternoon. The MCC persists at its mature and strongest stage overnight and into the early morning in which the rainfall is characterized as stratiform rainfall (rather than convective rainfall which occurs with thunderstorms). Dissipation of the MCC commonly occurs around sunrise.

This is an image of the infrared satellite picture of one of these systems taken over the Midwest states.  The brighter coolers indicate higher cloud tops.  They can be as large as the state of Iowa as seen here.  Thanks for checking our blog out!  We would love to hear comments from you…

The persistent High pressure ridge at the surface and in the Mid-Levels of the atmosphere has provided unwelcomed heat and humidity over the Mid-South for the last several days.  I say unwelcomed, some, including myself, enjoy the heat I just don’t enjoy the humidity.  The front that you see on the map is trying to move in our direction yet it is bumping up against the High, and at least for now, the High Pressure center is winning out.  It is going to break down a little tomorrow.  This will allow pieces of energy to hop into the Mid-South.  As a result, thunderstorms are possible tomorrow night.  The dynamics will be far less impressive than they currently are over the Plains states.  I should note that not everyone will see rain with this system but it does present the best chances for rain area-wide over the next couple of days or so.  Oh, and by the way, don’t expect significantly cooler temperatures behind this front.  Lower humidity is possible which will make the heat more tolerable.  You know we’ll keep you posted!