Well, for the moment at least.

A couple of factors have come into play, keeping a greater amount of convective activity from firing up.

High pressure near the Gulf is not going quietly, and it has put the brakes on the cold front’s southerly progress out of the Midwest.  That deprives the region of an additional lifting mechanism.

Also I’ve been watching impulses progress through Missouri and Arkansas, and so far the convective cap has not eroded or been broken.  What does this mean?  It equates to diminshing upper air complexes, rather the sudden blossoming we can see this time of year.  Additional good news (potentially) is the longer the cap holds, the closer we get to nightfall and the more daytime heating we lose…meaning less energy would be available to be tapped.

Dinner time.  The night is young.  If the cap breaks, the Team will be ready.

Good morning everyone!

I’m currently multitasking among broadcasting the Mid-South weather cuts-in for the Weekend Today Show, preparing the forecast graphics for our 8 a.m. newscast, and the ongoing process of analyzing the incoming data regarding this weekend’s weather.

As it stands, the entire coverage area is under a SLIGHT RISK for severe weather today and Sunday.  A cold front currently located in the Northern Plains & Midwest will dip south over the weekend.  This combined with daytime heating and warm, moist air (dewpoints will be near 70 degrees) will serve as a complement to a fair amount of convective available potential energy (CAPE).  What could this cause?  Rapid development of powerful cells will be possible over the next 36-48 hours.  Pockets of downpours as well as damaging winds, hail, and perhaps isolated tornado development could occur in the Mid-South.

Stay tuned to WMC-TV 5 & wmctv.com for updates.  Should conditions warrant, we’ll provide complete coverage to help keep you informed.

Have a great day!

The Storm Prediction Center has a  slight risk for severe weather over the Mid-South Saturday. 

A cold front will move through the Mid-South late Saturday and may trigger a few isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms.  The main threat with this system will be hail and damaging winds.  However, a isolated tornadoes could develop.  The WRF forecast model is indicating 2200+ jules of CAPE, a lifted index of -6.2, a Total Totals index of 52 and a weak cap of 0.9 for 7 PM Saturday.  The GFS forecast model is a bit more tame with just over 1000 jules of CAPE, a lifted index of -4.7, a Total Totals index of 52 and a cap of 1.7.   On the other hand the NGM forecast model is only forecasting 250 jules of CAPE, a lifted index of -1.5, a Total Totals index of 49 and a cap of 1.0.  So, here’s the deal….there will likely be thunderstorms in the area.  Most of the activity looks to be primarily in the northern couties of west Tennessee, northeast Arkansas, and the Missouri bootheel.  However, as the front pushes south it could spread that activity as far south as north Mississippi.  Just keep a weather eye out during the day Saturday.  We’ll keep you posted on throughout the day on WMCTV.com and on WMC TV. 

No, these aren’t the lyrics to an American Idol finalist’s song.  It’s more of a very broad synopsis of what we’re expecting to see during parts of the upcoming weekend.

Ok, about the sunglasses.  I’m expecting plenty of sunshine today and into Saturday (at least).  Toss in southerly and southwesterly winds, and we’ll have warm and more humid conditions.  High temps will climb back to near 90 degrees.

This is also a weekend where, if you have yard work or outdoor activities, you’ll want to keep an eye on our radar.  That’s where the umbrella (perhaps) comes in handy.  While we’ve been mentioning rain chances for Sunday night into Monday, a few isolated thundershowers cannot be ruled out for Saturday.

Now, for the puppy dogs.

 If you love animals and have a place in your heart and home, I HIGHLY suggest you watch ACTION NEWS 5 tomorrow (Saturday) morning during the 9 a.m. hour.  Nina Wingfield and the fine staff at the Collierville Animal Shelter will present the Pet of the Week that will be up for adoption.  If you’re even remotely thinking of getting a pet, the folks at the Collierville Shelter run a fine operation and are a great, inexpensive option for adoption.

Have a great weekend!  Perhaps we’ll cross paths at the Italian Fest.  I’m not so sure that carbs are the enemy!

I know this image is probably confusing for many of you.  These are some of the charts we analyze before putting together a forecast.  See if you can find the “H” on the bottom image to the left.  Now notice where Memphis is with respect to that “H.”  Normally in patterns like this the weather is quiet and hot.  It can also be muggy.  This is our pattern for Friday and as a result, rain is very unlikely.  That’s our weather lesson for today!  Thanks for checking us out.  I hope you have a good rest of the day.

David Baker from Memphis sent these pictures to us Tuesday night.  He took these while attending a girls softball game at Holy Rosary in east Memphis which was canceled due to the storm.  The first four shots are from the school looking to the west. The last one is from the White Station bridge over Sam Cooper looking northeast. 

There was no damage but alot of rain.  Tuesday’s storms produced 2.48″ of rain at the airport, 1.01″ of rain here at the TV 5 studios, and 1.56″ of rain at the NWS office at the Agri Center.

Thanks for sharing the pictures David. 

Sometimes tornadoes can be deceptive.  They are not always easy to spot and identify if one doesn’t have experience or training.  So the question is….Is this a tornado or not?  Email me at jbryant@wmctv.com and provide me with your response.  I’ll happily give you an explanation and of course answer the question.

Picture is courtesy of Gene Moore

After tonight we will have had more than 8 inches above normal rainfall from March 1 to date for Memphis.  As a matter of fact most of the Mid-South is above normal for rainfall thus far this year.  As of 11 PM this evening the Memphis International Airport reporting station had picked up more than an inch and a half of rain in a three hour period.  Here in Midtown at the WMC studios we’d recieved just over an inch within that same period of time.  The steady flow of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico interacting with outflow boundaries,or small ripples of energy in the atmosphere, from the slow moving cold front to the north combined to produce some very heavy rainfall over the area since the weekend.  This front will finally push south tonight and allow a drier airmass to settle into the area through the end of the week.  That will also help to briefly alleviate the heat and humidity that has been in place since the end of last week.  Rain should come to an end overnight and early tomorrow morning for the Action News 5 coverage area.  Clouds will be a bit slower to clear but sunshine will definitely be in place by Thursday.  High temperatures will be in the low to mid eighties Wednesday and Thursday, but enjoy it while you can because afternoon highs near ninety will return Friday and last through the weekend.  The front that come through tonight will stall to our south but lift back as a warm front early Friday.  Dont’ expect rain with the return front as the air in advance of it should be too dry to support it.  But, we will feel the heat and humidity once it moves north of us.  An associated low pressure system and accompanying cold front will drift south out of the central plains Sunday bringing another slight chance for rain and thunderstorms.  I say slight because I basing this forecast on the GFS model whereas the European model has the low staying well north of us and the cold front diminishing before moving through thus the area stays dry.  One common trait with both models is an indication of slightly cooler temperatures and lower humidity Sunday and Monday as high pressure builds in from the northern plains to the Ohio Valley.  It won’t last long though as a southerly flow returns next Tuesday bringing afternoon highs back into the lower nineties with a rapid increase in humidity.  So, get ready for the Mid-South summer season heat to settle in and stay, but at least we’ll get a break from the torential rain.  And to be honest, I’m really ready for the rain to end for awhile. 

Showers will be possible at any point throughout our Memorial Day.  There are several scattered thunderstorms on the radar as we speak.  Humidity is also very uncomfortable, with heat index values already in the low to middle 90s.  I do not believe it will rain “ALL” day in any one particular location.  But it could rain any time anywhere.  As Dave Brown puts it for comparison to a baseball game…At a the game you know there will be foul balls, you just don’t know exactly what sections and seats will be hit.  That’s pretty much what is happening this afternoon with our thunderstorms.  Ron Childers will have more later today on Action News Five @ 5, 6, and 10.  I hope you have a great rest of the day and enjoy the shortened workweek.

Showers and thunderstorms invaded parts of the Mid-South today along the frontal boundary that you see layed over Memphis.  As we have now lost the heating of the day (the main energy source responsible for today’s storms) the activity has died.  Tune in tomorrow morning for Action News Five at 8 AM as I will have an update when new model data information arrives into the weather center.  I hope you are having a good extended Holiday weekend so far.  Get ready for steamy conditions tomorrow with mainly dry skies.  The chances for rain are not zero, however, just not very good.