Early indications are that Friday could be a severe weather day in the Mid-South.  A cold front will move out of the central plains and move through the area Friday night.  Rain and a few thunderstorms will likely break out in advance of the front during the late morning and early afternoon.  Heavier rain and stronger storms are more likely along the front Friday night. 

SPC has the Action News 5 coverage area under a slight risk for Day 3.

HPC also has the heaviest area of rain over the Mid-South.

Storm Machine GFS 0z Wednesday forecast soundings are also quite impressive for the 72 hour period ending at 0z Saturday.

Some parameters on the sounding are concerning.  LI’s of -6, Total Totals of 55.  K Index of 36.  Sweat Index of 496.   CAPE values of 1500 to 2000 j/kg.  There is also the on set of a significant noturnal low level jet after a day of strong southerly flow.  Another parameter that I refer to for tornado potenital is the Bulk Richardson Number (BRN) which is forecast to 17 to 18.  Teens in this parameter are optimal for tornadoes.  That is not to say that there will be tornadoes but it certainly catches our attention.  There is still plenty of time between now and then for all of these parameters to change, hopefully for the better.  But for now we will keep a close eye on Friday.

Three tornadoes hit the state of Virginia yesterday, remarkably killing noone considering the picture I have posted above.  Upon glancing at the damage I knew without a doubt it was tornado damage and not straight line wind damage.  There has been no confirmation yet as to how strong the storm rated on the EF scale was but I would bet it was an EF-3 at least and maybe even higher.  Check out this amazing picture.

I read an interesting story in USA TODAY last week about a laser beam trying to generate lightning strikes during a thunderstorm.  This has been tried may times in recent years.  I’ll post the link to the article below here.  There are a couple of ideas concerning the initiation.  The first is that it might greatly help science and the second is the concern of disrupting the natural processes of mother nature.    Leave me a comment, let me know what you think.

http://www.usatoday.com/weather/research/2008-04-23-laser-lightning_N.htm

Here Here is the latest threat for severe weather from the Storm Prediction Center.  All of the areas outlined in green are under a slight risk as thunderstorms will move through the Mid-South late this afternoon and especially into tonight.  Tomorrow looks pretty good after about 6-7 AM.  Happy Weekend to you!

We’ve had just about 17 inches of rain since March 1.  That’s about 7 inches above normal.  The excessive rain here in the Mid-South and in the upper Mississippi River Valley has led to extensive floooding along the Misissippi River.  So, the last thing we need is more rain but that’s what we have in the forecast.  Not just a little rain but three significant events in just about back to back order. 

Today a shortwave moves out of Arkansas and will produce about a quarter to half an inch of rain for many.  The shortwave will weaken considerably as it encounters the outer ridge of high pressure along the eastern coast.  It’s still uncertain whether rain will make it to the Tennessee River Valley and northeast Mississippi.  Although, I think most parts of the Action News 5 coverage area will get some rain today. 

We’ll get a break overnight and for much of the day Friday and we’ll likely even enjoy some sunshine tomorrow.  But, a cold front will move through late Friday and this will bring another round.  There will also be some instability in place in advance of the front due to daytime heating  along with 1000 to 1500 j/kg of cape.  That will provide the dynamics for some strong storms.  I think there will be some isolated severe storms that produce hail and some damaging winds late Friday night.  Rain should be gone by early Saturday morning high pressure will briefly build in during the day making for nice weather for most of the day.  However, the cold front will stall to the southeast and then return Sunday as a warm front.  This will combine with a low pressure system coming out of  Texas increasing cloud cover during the day and bringing another round of rain by Sunday night and possibly as early as Sunday afternoon. 

Another high pressure system will build in from the northwest Monday. This will usher dry cooler air into the region.  The high will gradually skirt east returning a southerly flow allowing for a warm up but keeping dry weather in place. 

The long range GFS shows our next rain maker moving in next Friday and lingering into Saturday.  Don’t change your plans for next weekend though because it’s still early and lately long range models have been doing alot of flip flopping. 

A couple of interesting factors will influence the weather in the Mid-South today.  We’ve enjoyed the influence of a strong ridge of high pressure over the past couple of days.  The ridge is still firmly in place from the northern Appalacians down to the Gulf Coast.  This will continue our warm southerly flow today and stream moisture into the area.  To the west we have a cold front that really packed a punch across the central plains yesterday and continues to be a threat further east today.  Yesterday thunderstorms along the front produced golf ball to baseball sized hail in parts of Oklahoma and Kansas.  This morning the Storm Prediction Center has already issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 1 PM for Northern Arkansas, Southern Missouri, and Northeastern Oklahoma.

It doesn’t look like those storms will be able to make their way into the Action News 5 coverage area.  The ridge will remain in place today and cause the front to wash out before making it into the Mid-South.  It is possible that a few storms could make it into eastern Arkansas but the primary threat will be a result of convection associated with daytime heating.  Most areas will warm into the low to mid eighties today with dewpoints near sixty.  That combined with diurnal instability could produces some activity.  If we see anything it will likely be confined to areas along the Mississippi River and points west.  The airmass east of the river will be supressed as a result of high pressure so no thunderstorms are likely there. 

The ridge should remain in place Wednesday allowing for another nice and warm day.  There will still be a slight chance for some convection during the afternoon but most of the day and the area will be dry.  The ridge will weaken and move further east for the end of the week and a series of shortwave will eject into the area bringing a better chance for rain and thunderstorms.  Thursday activity will be scattered then Friday a cold front will push through late in the day bringing a more organized line of rain and thunderstorms.  Severe weather doesn’t seem to be a concern with either system but given the time of year and some slight instability we can’t rule out the possiblity of isolated severe storms. 

The weekend should be dry with highs in the mid to upper seventies. 

Next week will begin with partly cloudy skies and highs in the seventies.  Lastest model runs indicate a frontal passage late Tuesday or early Wednesday bringing another chance for rain and thunderstorms. 

The hits just keep on coming folks!  After a lovely Saturday when we reached a high of 73 degrees in Memphis, it’ll be even warmer today.  We’ll even have another generous round of sunshine to boot!

I sort of feel bad for the Memphis Redbirds, who completed their first homestand of the season with high temps mainly in the 40s, 50s & 60 and nighttime readings in the 30s…not exactly ideal baseball weather.  Had the team been in town, this would’ve been a great weekend to get a ticket out on the grassy bluff and watch the crop of future stars slug it out.

It looks like the heavy sweater weather has been finally put in the rear-view mirror.  I’m taking one last check of my 7 DAY FORECAST before taking it to the airwaves with Anna Marie (Hartman) & Ben (Watson) on ACTION NEWS 5.  We’re talking 80s for the early part of the work week. 

It looks like our best chance of rain will be midweek as a slow moving front eases in from the west, perhaps as early as Tuesday afternoon for western parts of the Mid-South.  Wednesday looks like the day when more folks have a better chance of needing rain gear. 

It is really hard to describe today’s weather.  I don’t even think perfect does it justice.  Brutus (if you read this blog you know who he is….my rottweiler) and I went out running around the lake in Chickasaw Gardens and it was absolutely fantastic.  The baby ducks had just been born, things are green, people all around town outside were smiling, it was just great!  Man do I love this time of year, especially when severe weather is not an issue.  Sunday should be warmer but once again very nice.  Some folks may even hit 80 tomorrow.  ENJOY!

A strong ridge of high pressure is in place from the Gulf Coast to the Ohio Valley.  This will combine with a decent temperature gradient that is in place from the eastern seaboard to the central plains to produce a pressure gradient which will give us a strong south wind at 15 to 20 mph with higher gust.  The high pressure ridge will also keep clouds at bay making for mostly sunny skies today and clear skies tonight.  Highs will be in the low to mid seventies today with overnight lows in the low to mid seventies.  We’ll see a gradual increase in clouds during the day Thursday in advance of our next rain maker.  Afternoon highs will be back in the mid seventies. 

Rain will move in Friday along a cold front pushing out of the Rockies today and central plains tomorrow.   We won’t have to worry about severe with this system although, there may be some thunder and lightning toaccompany the frontal passage.  The real problem will be the additional rainfall on an already rain soaked surface and flooded Mississippi River Valley.  HPC suggest rainfall amounts of 1 to 1.5 inches of rain Friday.   

The weekend will be dry with clouds likely for a good part of the day Saturday and then clearing by late afternoon.  Skies will be partly cloudy Saturday.  Temperatures will be near seventy Saturday and into the upper seventies Sunday as we see the rapid return of the southerly flow into the area to end the weekend.

A warm front will move north through the Action News 5 coverage area Monday which will likely produce another round of rain and thunderstorms.  There could be a few strong storms to ride along the front so we’ll be watching that day closely.  Temperature will warm to near eighty Monday once the front moves north of us.  We’ll spend much of the day Tuesday in the warm sector.  There is the chance that a few thunderstorms could pop during the day but it looks like our best chance for more rain and thunderstorms will be Wednesday when a cold front moves from west to east.  There is also a better possibility of stronger storms with that frontal passage. 

Weather Radios:  We’ll be a the Kroger store on Stateline Road in Southaven Thursday from 5 to 7 PM programming those Midland Weather Radios.  You can get yours there for a special discounted price of $29.95 then let one of the Pinpoint 5 Storm Team members program it for you. 

I’ll be at the DeNueville Learning Center today at discuss safety tips for severe weather and other natural hazards.  Sister Laskshmie, the executive director there, has also planned a wonderful lunch for us to enjoy after the seminar.  Looks like I’m blowing my diet today and I’m happy about it.