The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Watch for several counties West of the Mississippi River.  Precipitation is beginning to build in Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.  Most of it so far has been in the form of very light rain.  There is snow in Missouri and Eastern Kansas as we speak.  Temperatures are right at the freezing mark in Memphis.  Rain and Snow is likely Monday with the best chances for accumulating snow North of Memphis. 

Check out the link below for a graphical representation of the Winter Storm Watch.

 http://www.srh.noaa.gov/meg/

Another low pressure system tracks out of southern Texas and along the Gulf Coast today bringing more precipitation to the Action News 5 coverage area.  This system takes a similar track as last week’s winter weather maker.  The big difference is the temperature.  Last week cold air moved in at the surface with warm moist air aloft allowing freezing rain, sleet, and snow to fall over most of the Mid-South.  This time warm moist air is once again moving in aloft but temperatures above freezing are in place at the surface.  This set up will produce nothing more than a cold rain through the day and overnight.  

Freezing rain, sleet, and snow will be much further north this time around.  Parts of Kansas, Missouri, and the Ohio Valley will be in the path.  The low pressure system will move through the northern Gulf of Mexico and then lift north through Alabama and Georgia eventually riding along the eastern seaboard were it will likely gain strength over the warmer waters of the Atlantic coast.  This strengthening low will cause big problems for the northeast this weekend as it produces gusting winds heavy and snow.  

The next weather maker for the Mid-South will again be a low pressure system coming out of northern Mexico and southern Texas.  This will bring another round of rain to the area Monday.  High pressure in the northern Plains will move south injecting a shot of cold air to the middle Mississippi River Valley late Monday.  Should the cold air arrive while moisture is still streaming our of the south it could lead to some snowfall Monday night.  It’s still a little early to be certain but this is one that we’ll be watching.

Right now and through the day we’re dealing with rain….just rain.

The annual tradition of Punxsutawney Phil looking for his shadow occured earlier this morning.  The groundhog did in fact see his shadow, indicating six more weeks of Winter.  There is no science to this tradition but it’s fun to talk about nonetheless.  Here in the Mid-South this week we are looking at a pretty typical Winter forecast with nothing too extreme.  Rain is possible later this week but with temperatures above freezing, just showers are in the outlook and no frozen precipitation is expected.  Click on the link below for more information about the groundhog.

http://www.gather.com/viewArticle.action?articleId=281474978027230&grpId=3659174697244816

The Mid-South finally climbed above freezing today and that allowed much of the ice and snow to melt in and around Memphis.  Across the North, however, there is still a deep snowpack.  This snowpack could actually be seen on the visible satellite imagery this afternoon.  It was pretty cool!  Our warming trend will continue tomorrow as many of us should climb into the 40s.  Most of our upcoming week looks good.  The next chances for rain arrive Thursday.  Have a great night.

Well, we’ve been upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning, effective from Midnight tonight until 6 a.m. Saturday morning.

At this time it looks like the northernmost counties in the region will get a generous dose of snowfall with rain, freezing rain, and sleet mixing in further south. Memphis and Shelby County could very well receive all of the above. The reason? Temps at and near the surface will teeter around 32 degrees, meaning precipitation in liquid and/or frozen form.

It looks like the event’s main push has slowed down, meaning it will linger into the latter part of Friday. This could translate into travel issues for Friday night and Saturday as well.

This is very much a dynamic system, so timing as well as precip types may change again.

As more upper air data becomes available throughout the evening, we will continue to evaluate what we think will happen.

We’ll keep you up to date on WMC-TV 5 & wmctv.com, plus Ron Childers & John Bryant will begin the morning newscast at a special time of 4:00 a.m. to you help make the important travel decisions.

For the year, 2009 Annual Temperature Tied for Fifth-Warmest

 The global ocean surface temperature was the second warmest on record for December, according to scientists at NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C.  Based on records going back to 1880, the monthly NCDC analysis is part of the suite of climate services NOAA provides. Scientists also reported the combined global land and ocean surface temperature was the eighth warmest on record for December.

 For 2009, global temperatures tied with 2006 as the fifth-warmest on record. Also, the earth’s land surface for 2009 was seventh-warmest (tied with 2003) and the ocean surface was fourth-warmest (tied with 2002 and 2004.)

Highlights for December 2009

• The global ocean temperature was the second warmest on record, behind 1997. The temperature anomaly was 0.97 degree F above the 20^th century average of 60.4 degrees F.
• The combined global land and ocean surface temperature was the eighth warmest on record, at 0.88 degree F above the 20^th century average of 54.0 degrees F.
• The global land surface temperature was 0.63 degree F above the 20^th century average of 38.7 degrees F – the coolest December anomaly since 2002.

 Global Temperature Highlights for 2009

• For the calendar year 2009, the global combined land and ocean surface temperature of 58.0 degrees F tied with 2006 as the fifth-warmest on record. This value is 1.01 degree F above the 20^th century average.
• NCDC scientists also noted the average temperature for the decade (2000-09), 57.9 degrees F, was the warmest on record surpassing the 1990-99 average of 57.7 degrees F. value.

Other Highlights

• Arctic sea ice covered an average of 4.8 million square miles during December.  This is 6.6 percent below the 1979-2000 average extent and the fourth lowest December extent since records began in 1979. 
• Antarctic sea ice extent in December was 2.1 percent above the 1979-2000 average, resulting in the 14^th largest December extent on record.  December Arctic sea ice extent has decreased by 3.3 percent per decade since 1979, while December Antarctic sea ice extent has increased by 0.6 percent per decade over the same period.
• Northern Hemisphere snow cover during December 2009 was the second largest extent, behind 1985, on record. North American snow cover for December 2009 was the largest extent since satellite records began in 1967.

 NCDC’s preliminary reports, which assess the current state of the climate, are released soon after the end of each month. These analyses are based on preliminary data, which are subject to revision. Additional quality control is applied to the data when late reports are received several weeks after the end of the month and as increased scientific methods improve NCDC’s processing algorithms.

Scientists, researchers and leaders in government and industry use NCDC’s monthly reports to help track trends and other changes in the world’s climate. The data have a wide range of practical uses, from helping farmers know what to plant, to guiding resources managers with critical decisions about water, energy and other vital assets.

A TORNADO WATCH is in effect for parts of the Mid-South this afternoon. Shelby County IS NOT INCLUDED. The next few hours will be the critical timeframe for any storm development in eastern Arkansas. It looks like once the center of low pressure passes, any weather threat significantly diminishes.

Stay tuned. We’ll keep you posted.

The morning started with some heavy rain over much of the Mid-South.  Here at the TV station we picked up just over half an inch of rain.  There is a bit of a lull in the rain right now, but this soggy situation isn’t finished. 

The subtropical jet that has been driving a series of storm systems into the California coast and the southwest is responsible for the activity taking place in the Action News 5 coverage area.  Although, our weather is no comparison to what is taking place to the west.  Let me give you an overview of what is taking place there and then we’ll discuss what will be taking place here. 

In the last few weeks El Nino has strengthened in the Pacific.  As a result the southern leg of the jet stream, which is enhanced as well, is bringing increased moisture and a series of low pressure systems to southern California.   These lows are producing strong thunderstorms,  flash flooding, and mudslides.  This has led to record rainfall in the area and heavy snows have fallen in the mountain ranges.  There was even a tornado warning for the Los Angeles area Tuesday.  An extremely rare event for that part of the country.  An even stronger and more enhanced low pressure system is poised to move on shore today capable of producing an additional eight to ten inches of rain in some areas along with strong gusting winds.  The potential for additional mudslides, flooding, and wind damage has most of the west coast on watch today. 

Here in the Mid-South our situation is not as dire.  We too will be dealing with a series of rainmakers but not the intensity of  those to the west.  Ripples in the atmosphere from those Pacific storms will filter into the area through midday Thursday and again this weekend bringing periods of rain.  With a low pressure system and trailing cold front to the west and a high pressures system in the Gulf along the coast of Florida, an ample amount of warm moist air will filter through today, tonight, and early Thursday. This surge of warm moist air will also result in above average temperatures through the weekend.   

Today will be cloudy with a few showers likely at just about any time but the most likely and heaviest rain will move through tonight.  Rainfall amounts of one to two inches will fall over most of the area from late tonight through early Thursday morning.  A Flash Flood Watch is in effect through that period for northern Mississippi as a result.   There will be a brief and somewhat pleasant dry period in place late Thursday through Friday and much of the day Saturday.  Then the next system arrives from the west, the same system that will plague the California coast and southwest today.  This will produce more rain in the Mid-South Saturday night and early Sunday.  The enhanced dynamics of that system will also be more capable of producing thunderstorms Saturday night especially in the southern portion of the Action News 5 coverage area. 

Once that system moves out we should be in for a drier and more seasonable pattern as a northwest flow returns.  Next week will begin with sunshine and highs back in the upper forties.  In the meantime get set for some soggy weather.

Unusually mild weather is ongoing in the region.  The main reason is simple.  The Polar jet stream has retreated way up into Canada.  As Ron Childers eluded to in the previous post, it appears this feature will stay there for awhile and, as a result, it will not turn brutally cold anytime soon.  This is typically the coldest time of year with respect to climate.  Expect wet weather Wednesday and Thursday with an active Subtropical jet.  Another lobe of energy could bring rain and even a few thunderstorms to the Mid-South next weekend.  We will, of course, continue to track that disturbance all week and bring you the very latest.  Thank you, as always, for choosing Action News Five.

It’s always a nice treat when temperatures and sky conditions combine for a great day and especially when it’s a Monday and even better when it’s a holiday.   All of those things are aligning today in the  Mid-South meaning a great day for all. 

Average high temperatures for this date are in the upper forties with overnight lows near thirty.  However, this will not be a typical January day.  High pressure will provide sunshine and a southwest flow which will combine for highs in the lower sixties today.  It will feel more like a spring day than winter day.  It looks like these warmer than average temperatures will stick around for the next several days but that won’t be the case with the sunshine. 

A couple of low pressure systems and the jet stream will bring rain and possibly a few thunderstorms to the area over the next seven days.  The first low pressure system now sits idle in the Texas panhandle.  The jet stream is coming out of the Pacific into southern California bringing rain to the that area of the country.  As the strongest winds move further inland Tuesday and Wednesday it will nudge the low and a trailing cold front northeast out of Texas.  As a result we will get rain from this system Wednesday and Thursday.  There is also the potential for a few isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms as a result to the accompanying instability along and in advance of the front. 

High pressure will briefly build into the area late Thursday and through the day Friday allowing for a nice end to the week with sunshine and high temperatures back in the lower sixties.  Another low pressure system and cold front will move out of the west coast and through the Rockies arriving in the Mid-South  this coming weekend.  The low will track north of us but the trailing cold front will push through the area.  The exact timing of the front is still too early to tell but based on the latest forecast model runs it looks like it will move through late Saturday and early Sunday.   This would mean rain is more likely Saturday night and Sunday morning allowing most of the weekend daytime hours to be cloudy but dry.  Temperatures will also remain above normal so wintry weather is not a concern with this system.  We’ll have a better handle on the timing of the event as the week progresses.

In the meantime, enjoy this nice break form the cold and the sunshine today.  And then, get ready for a soggy midweek with another shot of rain over the weekend.